Three in every five buy-to-let (BTL) brokers expect a 0.25% cut in the base rate on 8th May, according to BTL lender, Landbay.
In a poll of 119 mortgage brokers that closed on 22nd April, Landbay asked intermediaries, “What do you think will happen to the base rate in May?”
The majority of brokers (71%) expect a cut to the base rate in May.
Almost three in five (61%) are forecasting a 0.25% cut to the base rate while one in nine (11%) are predicting a 0.5% cut. Approximately one in four (27%) are anticipating no change to the base rate. A bearish 2% believe the base rate will rise.
Rob Stanton, sales and distribution director at Landbay, said: “Our findings reflect a cautious optimism among brokers and an expectation of a gradual easing of monetary policy – with a large majority anticipating a rate cut. While 61% think we’ll see rates fall 0.25%, a bullish 11% think we’ll see a 0.5% cut. That aligns with market expectations. A significant number of brokers expect no change, or even a rise, which highlights some ongoing uncertainty in the market, driven, most probably, by persistent concerns over inflation.
“While brokers are clearly trying to navigate a complex economic landscape, expectations of a potential base rate cut in May present opportunities for landlords and property investors keen to expand their portfolio.”
Financial markets have priced in a 100% chance of a Bank of England interest rate cut this month, as the effects of Donald Trump's evolving trade war continue to play out in the global economy. LSEG data had initially shown an 82% likelihood of a reduction from 4.5% to 4.25% on 8th May. But the doubt disappeared shortly after Megan Greene, a member of the MPC, the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee, said US trade tariffs are more likely to push down on UK inflation than raise the pace of price increases.
The LSEG data also showed that financial markets are expecting three Bank of England rate cuts by the year's end.
The latest research from Landbay follows a previous poll where brokers told the BTL lender they expect only two more interest rate cuts in 2025. At a webinar in February, Landbay polled 105 mortgage intermediaries on their view of the interest rate situation. A majority of the mortgage introducers surveyed by Landbay (54%) thought there would be twomore cuts this year – only one in seven (14%) of those polled forecast three more cuts by the end of 2025. An optimistic 2% of brokers said they expected the base rate to fall to 3.5%.
More than a quarter (26%) forecast one more cut in 2025 and a pessimistic 4% of brokers thought there would be no more cuts at all and that the base rate would still be 4.5% at the end of the year.
