Mortgage search activity around the Bank of England’s decision to hold the base rate at 4 per cent yesterday (Thursday 6 November) has shown a familiar pattern - a build-up in borrower activity before the announcement, a lull on the day itself, and a predicted surge the following Monday.
New analysis from Twenty7tec, based on five years of search data across multiple rate decisions, shows that this trend repeats time and time again.
The Tuesday that falls two days before each announcement is typically the busiest single day of the month. The Tuesday nine days before ranks second. By contrast, the rate decision day itself is only the tenth busiest day in the four weeks leading up to each announcement.
When viewed on a seven-day rolling basis, the peak always lands on the Monday after each decision, meaning the seven busiest days fall between the Tuesday before and the Monday after.
The analysis also shows subtle differences depending on whether the Bank raises, holds or cuts rates:
- Raise: average of 52,421 searches on decision day
- Hold: slightly lower at 50,033 searches
- Drop: around 51,536 searches
But on a seven-day rolling basis, the week surrounding a hold decision is the busiest overall:
- Raise: 357,145 searches
- Hold: 360,508 searches (busiest)
- Drop: 348,206 searches
That consistency, Twenty7tec says, reflects how confidence and clarity drive borrower engagement. When rates remain steady, activity tends to climb.
This week, searches mirror the pattern. On Tuesday, 4 November, total mortgage searches for standard residential reached 56,511, up from 49,979 the previous Tuesday (28 October) (an increase of 13.1%). On decision day, Thursday 6 November, it was 55,704 - higher than it has been in the past. Based on historic trends, Monday is expected to be the busiest day of the month for brokers and borrowers alike.
“If we were to give brokers and lenders just one piece of advice on Decision Rate Day, it would be this: don’t take Monday off,” said Nathan Reilly, Commercial Director at Twenty7tec.
“Once the Bank makes its move, lenders spend the weekend adjusting products, and by Monday, the systems are updated and borrowers are ready to act. It’s the same pattern every time.”
Nakita Moss, Head of Lender added: “With this decision marking the last major rate announcement of the year, we anticipate strong activity in early November, a short dip in December, and the usual sharp rebound in the first working days of January - one of the busiest periods for mortgage sourcing.”
